Planning for the Most Likely Brexit ScenariosAllowing Us To Help Your Business Be Ready for Uncertain Times

Brexit brings significant uncertainty for UK businesses and uncertainty is bad for business – but you’re not powerless to do something about it. Leaving the European Union will involve the unpicking of 44 years of treaties and agreements, with the post Brexit trade deal (yet to be negotiated) likely to be the most complex part.

The current state of negotiations sees the Government having agreed a ‘divorce’ deal with the European Commission, endorsed by the other 27 member states but now rejected by the UK Parliament.

Think of your business, like a ship on course (its strategy) to arrive at a destination (its strategic vision); then along comes a Brexit storm to blow it off course! Your business may be significantly affected by any or all of:

  • Tariffs (increased costs or, potentially, imported and cheaper competition)
  • Customs Barriers (administrative costs and logistical delays, with consequent threats to production schedules, particularly for ‘just in time’ situations)
  • Sterling depreciation (increased costs for importers and re-exporters)
  • Retreat from the UK of Internationally owned clients
  • Freedom of movement restrictions of non-nationals (labour force shortfalls and complications)
  • Sourcing key components and materials (threats to production and so to sales)
  • VAT complications (cash management issues and increased administration costs); and
  • Political intransigence (creating additional business uncertainty)

Scenario Planning and the Significance of Brexit Issues

To ensure you stay successfully on course in this new but uncertain future, planning is crucial. It helps you understand where you are and the threats you face, while empowering you to take action. Ampios has a highly experienced team to offer practical, expert advice and to support you through Brexit planning. You can meet us, without obligation, for an initial discussion as we work on the basis of mutual respect and trust, not ‘templates’. We use this opportunity to learn about your business and for you to feel comfortable about us.

Scenario planning has significant benefits; it enables you to:

  • Conduct a critical examination of the threats posed by Brexit to your business.
  • Identify key drivers of change that will impact both your business and the market and the impact of those likely scenarios.
  • Envisage turning points, key decisions and early warnings of change and illustrate alternative strategies.
  • Decide upon actions to take as scenarios unfold.

Using workshops, with key members of your management team, we take you through this process and particularly identify areas of moderate/high probability and moderate/high impact so that future management decisions are forewarned and forearmed. This process will help you build resilience to the risks that Brexit poses whilst demonstrating to your key customers that you are Brexit ready to assuage any threats to supply.

Looking at 4 Key Areas That Could Affect Your Business

volatility and uncertainty


Leaving the EU is threatening a challenging future for your business. and is something you may feel you’re powerless to deal with. Doing nothing for any determined ambitious entrepreneur is simply not an option.

Currency Movements


Changes in currency will potentially bring economic uncertainty and threaten fluctuations in profit.

Logistical Interuptions


Importing or exporting goods and securing supplies on time will affect to your businesses productivity and may mean you may need to rethink your processes.

Tariff Changes


Additional costs affect your bottom line and sourcing new possible suppliers will take time and may mean you have to rethink your supply chain.


Scenario planning is not a crystal ball and does not give definitive answers to an unknown future but it does enable better decision making as envisioned scenarios fall into place. This is illustrated by the classic early example of scenario planning in the 1970’s when oil company Shell envisioned, among other scenarios, a situation where there was a huge rise in the price of oil, which in fact happened. In that scenario, they had already decided to go into oil exploration/ownership, in addition to processing. So, they became an owner of expensive oil, not just a processor.

They made a ‘killing’ while rival oil companies suffered and took significant time to catch up. They were on their toes when the issue arose, already had a plan and acted to their significant commercial advantage.

So, planning ahead can put your business ahead.
To arrange a free initial discussion, without obligation, contact us by email: or call us on +44 (0)333 987 4672

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