Planning For The Most Likely Brexit Scenarios
Help Your Business To Be Ready for Uncertain Times
Brexit brings significant uncertainty for UK businesses and uncertainty is bad for business – but you’re not powerless to do something about it. Leaving the European Union will involve the unpicking of 45 years of treaties and agreements, with the post Brexit trade deal (yet to be negotiated) likely to be the most complex part.
The current state of negotiations sees the May Government having agreed a ‘divorce’ deal with the European Commission, endorsed by the other 27 member states but now rejected by the UK Parliament. A “no-deal” Brexit is now a real possibility.
Think of your business, like a ship on course (its strategy) to arrive at a destination (its strategic vision); then along comes a Brexit storm to blow it off course! Your business may be significantly affected by any or all of the following:
- Tariffs (increased costs or, potentially, imported and cheaper competition)
- Customs Barriers (administrative costs and logistical delays, with consequent threats to production schedules, particularly for ‘just in time’ situations)
- Sterling depreciation (increased costs for importers and re-exporters)
- Retreat from the UK of Internationally owned clients
- Freedom of movement restrictions of non-nationals (labour force shortfalls and complications)
- Sourcing key components and materials (threats to production and so to sales)
- VAT complications (cash management issues and increased administration costs)
- Political intransigence (creating additional business uncertainty)
Scenario Planning and the Significance of Brexit Issues
To ensure you stay successfully on course in this new but uncertain future, planning is crucial. It helps you understand where you are and the threats you face, while empowering you to take action. Ampios has a highly experienced team to offer practical, expert advice and to support you through Brexit planning. You can meet us, without obligation, for an initial discussion as we work on the basis of mutual respect and trust, not ‘templates’. We use this opportunity to learn about your business and for you to feel comfortable about us.
Scenario planning has significant benefits; it enables you to:
- Conduct a critical examination of the threats posed by Brexit to your business.
- Identify key drivers of change that will impact both your business and the market and the impact of those likely scenarios.
- Envisage turning points, key decisions and early warnings of change and illustrate alternative strategies.
- Decide upon actions to take as scenarios unfold.
Using workshops, with key members of your management team, we take you through this process and particularly identify areas of moderate/high probability and moderate/high impact so that future management decisions are forewarned and forearmed. This process will help you build resilience to the risks that Brexit poses whilst demonstrating to your key customers that you are Brexit ready to assuage any threats to supply.
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Looking at 4 Key Areas That Could Affect Your Business
VOLATILITY & UNCERTAINTY
Leaving the EU threatens a challenging future for your business and is something you may feel you’re powerless to deal with. For any determined, ambitious entrepreneur, doing nothing is simply not an option.
STERLING CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS
Changes in currency will potentially bring economic uncertainty and threaten fluctuations in profit.
Importing or exporting goods and securing supplies on time will affect your businesses productivity and may mean you need to rethink your processes.
TARIFF AND COSTS INCREASE
Additional costs affect your bottom line and possibly having to source new suppliers will take time and means you may have to rethink your supply chain.